Causation Probabilities from Literature

Larsen [20] performed a comprehensive study on defined causation probabilities in his study of ship collisions with bridges. Although the study primarily addresses ship-bridge collisions, Larsen [20] also presented available causation probabilities for ship grounding and ship-ship collisions.

The table below represents an organised table of his review, which further has been extended with some results not given in [20]. The full references to the authors identified by Larsen [20], will not be given here but may be found in section 5.3 of reference [20].

Further, Fujii and Mizuki [9] states that the above given causation probabilities are obtained for a frequency of visibility less than 1 km that is equal to 263 hours pr. year (i.e. 3%). They further state that the influence of low visibility on the causation probability is approximately proportional to the inverse of the visibility. Finally, they suggest to multiply the above given causation probabilities with a factor of 2 if the frequency of visibility less than 1 km. is in the range of 3% to 10%, and a factor of 8 if it is in the range of 10% to 30%.